On April 9, 2025, Donald J. Trump posted a single line on Truth Social: "THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!!! DJT." Less than four hours later, his administration announced a surprise pause on new tariffs — except for China — sending U.S. markets soaring. The timing wasn’t just convenient. It was suspicious. And now, the Securities and Exchange Commission is investigating whether the president used non-public policy information to benefit his own company, Trump Media & Technology Group, whose stock trades under the ticker DJT.
The Market Meltdown That Started It All
It began on March 21, 2025, when Trump unveiled his "Liberation Day" tariff plan — a 10% universal levy on all imports, plus targeted duties on key trade partners. By March 13, the S&P 500 had already plunged 10.1% from its February peak. Then, on April 2, the world’s markets collapsed. S&P 500 futures dropped 3.9%, Nasdaq-100 futures tumbled 4.7%, and the Dow lost 2.7% in a single afternoon. It was the largest global selloff since the 2020 pandemic crash.
What made it worse? Trump dismissed it all. "This is also the golden age of America," he told reporters in an hourlong address in November 2025. "Prices are coming down and all of that stuff." But the data said otherwise. The Department of Labor confirmed inflation ticked up in September 2025 — directly tied to ongoing tariffs. Meanwhile, CaixaBank Research reported that consumer prices rose while real wages stagnated. The disconnect between rhetoric and reality was jarring.
The DJT Trade That Raised Eyebrows
Then came April 9. Trump’s post about DJT wasn’t just a casual comment — it was a direct call to action. The stock, already volatile, jumped 18% in the next two hours. Why? Because investors knew what came next: the tariff pause. Markets rallied. The S&P 500 turned positive for the year on May 13. By June 27, both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ hit all-time highs.
Here’s the twist: the tariff pause wasn’t announced publicly until hours after Trump’s post. Internal White House communications, later leaked to Fortune, showed senior advisors had discussed the pause as early as April 8 — but only with a handful of officials. Trump, who has direct access to those briefings, was among them. That’s the core of the SEC’s inquiry: Did he know the policy shift was coming — and use that knowledge to profit?
A K-Shaped Economy and the Myth of Universal Prosperity
While the wealthy rode the stock rally, millions of Americans struggled. Fortune’s November 2025 report highlighted a K-shaped economy: high-income households saw their net worth surge 17% thanks to soaring assets, while low-income families faced higher grocery bills, rent hikes, and stagnant wages. The gap widened — not narrowed — under Trump’s policies.
"Homeownership may not be affordable for another 10 to 15 years," said Sean Dobson, CEO of the Amherst Group. He blamed pandemic-era interest rate hikes, but also the lack of wage growth under current policies. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve’s Chair, Jerome H. Powell, described the labor market as being in a "curious kind of balance" — low hiring, low firing, no real momentum. Workers weren’t quitting. They couldn’t afford to.
The $2,000 Dividend Promise — And the Reality
Trump promised Americans $2,000 "tariff dividend checks" that "could arrive mid-next year." The idea? Tax revenue from tariffs would be returned to citizens. But economists at the Yipinstitute.org found the math didn’t add up. The 10% universal tariff was projected to generate $1.2 trillion over two years — but the U.S. budget deficit in 2025 was already $1.8 trillion. Where would the money come from? Debt? Cuts to Social Security? No one has released a credible funding plan.
And here’s the irony: the tariff policy itself was designed to hurt consumers. Yipinstitute.org confirmed it caused "quantifiable economic disruptions" in Q1 2025 — lower GDP, higher prices. So how does a policy that raises costs suddenly become a source of windfall payments? The answer, for now, remains unclear.
What Comes Next?
The SEC investigation is ongoing. If Trump is found to have traded on non-public information, it could be the first time a sitting president faces criminal charges for insider trading. Even if no charges are filed, the perception is already set: the rules don’t apply equally.
Markets remain elevated, but fragile. Oil prices are down 15% from early 2025, and global stocks are up 17% — but that rally is concentrated in tech and luxury goods. Meanwhile, small businesses are still paying 8–12% more for imported components. The economy isn’t booming — it’s bifurcating.
By mid-2026, if those $2,000 checks ever arrive, they’ll be a drop in the bucket for most. But the real cost? A loss of trust. In institutions. In leadership. In the idea that the system works for everyone.
Frequently Asked Questions
Did Trump break the law by posting about DJT before the tariff pause?
Legally, it’s a gray area. Presidents aren’t barred from trading stocks, but using non-public policy information to benefit personally may violate insider trading statutes. The SEC is examining whether Trump had access to confidential tariff decisions before his post. If proven, it could be a federal crime — and a historic precedent.
Why did the market recover so quickly after the crash?
The recovery wasn’t due to economic strength — it was driven by policy reversal. When Trump paused tariffs on all countries except China, investors interpreted it as a win for corporate profits. The S&P 500 surged because the threat of widespread import taxes vanished. But underlying inflation and wage stagnation remained. The rally was a short-term relief, not a fundamental rebound.
How did Trump’s tariffs affect everyday Americans?
Consumer prices rose on electronics, clothing, and household goods — items heavily reliant on imports. A typical American family paid $1,200 more in 2025 for essentials compared to 2024, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Meanwhile, wages grew by just 2.1%. The burden fell hardest on low- and middle-income households, while the wealthy benefited from rising asset values.
Is the $2,000 tariff dividend check realistic?
Unlikely. The projected tariff revenue ($1.2 trillion over two years) doesn’t cover the existing $1.8 trillion deficit. Paying $2,000 to every adult would cost $520 billion — nearly half the projected revenue. No credible budget plan exists. Experts believe it’s political theater — a promise meant to distract from inflation and inequality.
What does the Federal Reserve think about the current economy?
Chair Jerome H. Powell described the labor market as a "curious kind of balance" — low hiring, low firing, no wage pressure. Employers aren’t laying off, but they’re not hiring aggressively either. It’s a stagnant equilibrium. The Fed sees no inflationary surge, but also no real growth engine. The economy is growing, but unevenly — and without broad-based strength.
What’s the long-term impact of this episode on U.S. markets?
The biggest risk isn’t another crash — it’s eroded trust. Investors now question whether policy decisions are made for public good or personal gain. If markets continue to react to presidential tweets rather than economic data, the U.S. financial system risks becoming a casino — where insiders win, and ordinary citizens lose.